Boerma JT, Ngalula J, Isingo R, Urassaa M, Senkoro KP, Gabone R, Mkumbo EN
1997. Health Transition Review, Supplement 2 to Volume 7, pp. 63-74
Data from a longitudinal study in northwest Tanzania were used to assess the levels of adult mortality and the leading causes of death. Adult mortality in this rural area was high and 42 per cent of persons aged 15 will die before their sixtieth birthday at current mortality rates. Mortality in this population with an HIV prevalence of about six per cent in 1994-95, has increased by about one-third because of HIV/AIDS, and further increase is likely. Other infectious diseases cause nearly a quarter of deaths and non-communicable diseases are still a relatively minor cause. The occurrence of the AIDS epidemic may have further delayed the onset of the epidemiological transition in many parts of Africa.